The Tropical Weather & Climate Research Group explains their conclusions in the June 2 update of Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2022 (PDF). Additional forecast updates will be released July 7 and August 4.
As was mentioned in the blog post Experts predict increased activity this hurricane season (June 1-November 30, 2022), CSU is calculating local impacts along the Gulf and east coasts. Colorado State University has calculated probabilities for Lancaster and Northumberland counties and they are found in CSU Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities - NNK. The good news is that CSU predicts Lancaster and Northumberland counties have a less than 1% probability of being impacted by a major hurricane in 2022. There was, however, a slight uptick in the category “2022 Forecast Probability of Named Storm impact.” Both counties remain under 40%.