On April 7, Colorado State University released its prediction, Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2022. They will issue forecast updates June 2, July 7, and August 4. NOAA’s prediction was issued today, May 24 (NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season).
In addition to calculating general Atlantic basin hurricane likelihoods, Colorado State University has debuted “a new methodology for calculating the impacts of tropical cyclones for each state and county/parish along the Gulf and East Coasts. . .” (Source: CSU Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities) The NNK predictions are in CSU Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities - NNK. The good news is that CSU predicts Lancaster and Northumberland counties have a less than 1% probability of being impacted by a major hurricane in 2022. That said, both NOAA and CSU are clear that it only takes one hurricane to devastate an individual, family, or community. CSU wrote,
Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.