Hurricane season is here. According to the majority of the 19 major forecasting organizations, 2026 will be a lower-than-usual-activity to normal activity year as the illustration, above, from Seasonal Hurricane Predictions, shows.
But remember: As Colorado State University regularly says, and I’m paraphrasing, it only takes one hurricane to ruin your day.
What follows are summaries from Colorado State University’s CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research Team, NOAA, and Department of Hydrology and Water Resources at the University of Arizona. The last section contains prediction broad strokes from several additional organizations.
Before we get to the forecasts, though, some news from NOAA. In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration introduced new and improved hurricane tools:
- NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) will implement an improved version of the tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic that will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
- NHC will begin testing an experimental version of the tropical cyclone track forecast cone that will capture a greater range of possibilities for the track of the storm by incorporating uncertainties for both direction of movement and timing.
- NHC will provide new products and services for the Hawaiian Islands to include storm surge watches and warnings, and a peak storm surge graphic. These will be publicly available for the main Hawaiian Islands on hurricanes.gov.
Detailed info about these improved tools (PDF) is also available.
Colorado State University’s CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research Team Forecasts
Colorado State University’s CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research Team forecast lower than average hurricane activity during the 2026 season.
CSU determined probabilities for at least one major (Cat 3-5) hurricane landfall:
- Entire continental U.S. coastline - 32% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
- U.S. East Coast Including Florida Peninsula (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) - 15% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville - 20% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Forecast
NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season -- Early preparation essential to staying safe all season announces top-line predictions for the season. NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on May 21 gets into more detail and more of the science such as the impacts of El Niño/ENSO, tradewinds, and Main Development Region (MDR). The latter release says,
NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that a below-normal season is the most likely outcome, with moderate chances for a near-normal season, and low probabilities that the season could be above-normal. The outlook calls for a 55% chance for a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance for an above-normal season. See the NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons for more information.
The 2026 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:
* 8-14 Named Storms
* 3-6 Hurricanes
* 1-3 Major Hurricanes
* Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 45-115% of the median (Source)
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources (HWR) at the University of Arizona
The University of Arizona is the significant odd man out for 2026 predictions: The HWR team predicts above average hurricane activity in 2026 and “the possibility of a very strong El Niño.” The image at the top of the post contrasts HWR and the other prediction organizations. The image below shows HWR’s specific predictions: Nine hurricanes, four major hurricanes, and 20 named storms, all higher than the medians since 1981, seven, three, and 14, respectively.
Other predictions
- WeatherTiger’s Chief Meteorologist Dr. Ryan Truchelut’s first look at the 2026 hurricane season April 1 puts activity at lower than normal.
- As of April 20, 268Weather projects 16 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
- Munich Re’s A powerful El Niño is on the horizon – slightly fewer hurricanes in the North Atlantic and more typhoons in Asia are likely explains their predictions:
- WeatherBELL Analytics’ April 6 forecast can be summarized this way: “With the water so warm, any storm that develops in close can get in a slugger’s punch. So we can’t rule out a major hurricane hitting.”
Based on the latest analysis of climatological conditions, Munich Re expects slightly fewer storms than usual for the 2026 hurricane season. Based on the average of estimates from leading research institutes, around 12 or 13 named cyclones will likely form in the tropical North Atlantic. Roughly five or six of these could develop into hurricanes, including two potentially major hurricanes with wind speeds of over 110 mph (177 km/h). However, individual institutes’ respective forecasts vary considerably.
Despite the prevailing conditions, which are likely to have a dampening effect on Atlantic activity, these forecasts are only slightly below the long-term average for the past 30 years (15.6 named storms, including 7.6 hurricanes and 3.5 severe hurricanes), which have been characterised by a warm phase in sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic (the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, AMV), which is associated with increased tropical cyclone activity.