The Virginia Marine Resource Commission (VMRC) has announced the 25% decline of the blue crab population between 2024 and 2025.
The Chesapeake Bay Foundation (CBF) calls the results a “distressing low.” Many in the Bay watershed would likely agree with CBF’s reaction. Not two months ago, the Chesapeake Bay Foundation released the results of the IPSOS poll of 2,000 people living across the Chesapeake Bay watershed―DC, MD, PA, and VA―which found that the Bay animal most in need of protection was the blue crab (70%). Other top animals identified were bald eagle (68%), oyster (49%), and striped bass (36%).
Read the full press release, “Virginia’s Adaptive Management Addresses 2025 Blue Crab Population Fluctuations,” here:
HAMPTON, VA - The 2025 Bay-wide Winter Dredge Survey results indicate the Chesapeake Bay’s blue crab population has declined from an estimated 317 million crabs in 2024 to 238 million crabs. Virginia’s blue crab managers are not surprised by these findings, as colder-than-average temperatures during the winter of 2024 to 2025, which ranged 2 to 4 degrees below normal, typically increase mortality rates for crabs that overwinter in the Bay’s sediments.
Virginia’s adaptive approach to fisheries management continues to effectively address the highly dynamic nature of the Chesapeake Bay’s blue crab population. In 2024, Virginia reduced its crab harvest from the Bay by 18 percent compared to the previous year, while the Potomac River Fisheries Commission achieved a 14 percent reduction. Although Maryland increased its 2024 harvest by 1 percent, the combined result was a Bay-wide harvest reduction of approximately 7 percent.
While total population abundance has declined, the population of adult female crabs, the most important segment for reproductive sustainability, has remained above the management sustainability threshold. Maintaining adult female abundance above this critical benchmark is a central goal of the Bay jurisdictions’ blue crab conservation strategies. The threshold serves as a scientific reference point for avoiding an overfished population and ensuring the long-term viability of the fishery. Managers emphasize that this continued stability in female crab numbers supports cautious optimism, even as overall abundance has declined.
Virginia Marine Resources Commissioner Jamie Green emphasized the importance of maintaining a flexible, conservation-focused approach in light of early signs of a strong commercial season. “While this year’s survey shows a decline in overall abundance, Virginia watermen have experienced good catch rates so far this season,” said Commissioner Green. “These kinds of fluctuations are not unusual in a dynamic system like the Chesapeake Bay, and they reinforce why our adaptive management approach is so critical. We will continue to rely on sound science and a cautious, flexible strategy to ensure the long-term sustainability of our blue crab fishery while supporting the industry that depends on it.”
A comprehensive stock assessment, supported by Virginia, Maryland, and the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, is in progress. This effort will consider habitat conditions, water temperature and salinity, ocean dynamics, and predator abundance as factors affecting the blue crab population. Results are expected in 2026 and will help guide long-term management strategies for the Bay-wide blue crab fishery.
Based on the survey results and ongoing conservation efforts, Virginia fisheries staff will await recommendations from the Crab Management Advisory Committee (CMAC) before presenting regulatory options to the Commission. CMAC will review the 2025 Winter Dredge Survey findings and provide its recommendations during its upcoming meeting on Thursday May 29, 2025, at 5pm. For more information, visit mrc.virginia.gov. (Emphasis added to identify upcoming meeting.)
The survey findings can be found on Maryland’s DNR website, 2025 Blue Crab Winter Dredge Survey.
Pending action on the survey results
As indicated in the VMRC press release, the Crab Management Advisory Committee will meet Thursday, May 29 at 5:00 pm at the VMRC main office (380 Fenwick Rd, Fort Monroe). The meeting will also likely stream on YouTube, @vamarineresources. Committee members will “review the preliminary 2024/2025 Chesapeake Bay Winter Crab Dredge Survey results and preliminary 2024 Virginia harvest data” and discuss “possible management responses, if necessary.”
Advocacy: Share comments/recommendations with the Crab Management Advisory Committee by sending an email to Adam Kenyon, Chief of Shellfish Management. Or, mail comments to the CMAC in care of Adam Kenyon (Virginia Marine Resources Commission, Building 96, 380 Fenwick Rd, Ft. Monroe, VA 23651).
The Potomac River Fisheries Commission’s Blue Crab Advisory Committee (BCAC) will also meet and discuss the findings. The meeting takes place Wednesday, May 28 at 6:00 pm. According to the press release (PDF),
Items to be discussed include, but not limited to: reports of the 2025 crab harvest to date, 24/25 winter dredge survey results, possible crab management responses, orders setting the 25/26 crab management for male and female blue crabs, the election of a chairman and vice chairman, as well as committee vacancies.
This meeting is open to the public and all interested people are invited to attend. The PRFC does not discriminate against individuals with disabilities; therefore, if you are in need of reasonable accommodations due to a disability, please call (804) 224-7148 no later than three working days prior to the meeting date and identify your needs.
If you are unable to attend the meeting in person, you have the option to log into our webinar using the following meeting information:
Please join my meeting from your computer, tablet or smartphone. https://meet.goto.com/863511565
You can also dial in using your phone. United States: +1 (224) 501-3412 Access Code: 863-511-565
Advocacy: Share comments/recommendations with the PRFC Blue Crab Advisory Committee via the general email or mail (PRFC, PO Box 9, Colonial Beach, VA 22443).
In longer term action, the Chesapeake Bay Stock Assessment Committee is conducting the first assessment of blue crabs since 2011. According to “Maryland Department of Natural Resources Reports Sustainable Population in 2025 Chesapeake Bay Blue Crab Winter Dredge Survey,”
Blue crab management in the Chesapeake Bay will benefit from the completion of the ongoing stock stock assessment in the spring of 2026. In this analysis, scientists will examine years of data to assess potential factors that could be affecting the blue crab population, including hypoxia, water temperature, habitat availability, and predation by blue catfish.
The previous blue crab stock assessment in 2011 and accompanying management decisions helped to bring the Chesapeake’s blue crab population back from more than a decade of low abundance and harvest levels. The current stock assessment will serve as a critical update to that work by ensuring that management targets and thresholds, including sustainable fishing rates, are set appropriately.
Background
Blue crabs are quintessentially Chesapeake Bay, a source of pride, a cultural and culinary touchstone, and a significant tourism asset. Chesapeake Charm: The Story of Maryland Crabs and Their Cultural Legacy describes the crab’s allure and much of what is written also applies to Virginia.
Crabbing serves as a vital industry, supporting local fishermen, seafood wholesalers, and restaurants. The commercial harvest of blue crabs not only contributes to the region’s economy but also plays a crucial role in sustaining the livelihoods of many Marylanders.
Beyond its economic importance, blue crabs are deeply ingrained in Maryland’s cultural fabric. Crabbing is a treasured pastime for residents, with families and friends often gathering around crab feasts during summer months.
Local communities organize crab festivals and competitions that celebrate the craft of catching, cooking, and picking these delectable crustaceans. The blue crab has become an iconic symbol of Maryland pride, embodying the state’s unique coastal heritage and serving as a source of camaraderie among its residents.
Peter Stoller, in Environment: Rescuing a Protein Factory, shared the appropriately flourishing language of two regional greats.
The Chesapeake has always attracted superlatives. Captain John Smith, who first entered the bay in 1608, was so taken with the “fruitful and delightsome” place that he declared, “Heaven and earth never agreed better to frame a place for man’s habitation.” H.L. Mencken, Baltimore’s celebrated sage, was so impressed by the bay’s rich marine life that he labeled it “an immense protein factory.”
As delightful and delectable as blue crabs are to locals, they are big business.
Commercial crabbing got a major boost from local Benjamin Franklin Lewis with a better-designed crab pot. Researchers Peter Eldridge, VG Burrell, Jr., and George Steele explain (PDF) the impact the better design had on the popularity of the blue crab in the 1979 paper Development of a Self-Culling Blue Crab Pot:
Benjamin Franklin Lewis of Harryhogan, Va., revolutionized the blue crab, Callinectes sapidus, fishery with the introduction of the crab pot in the middle 1930's (Wharton, 1956). Until then, the most widely employed method of catching crabs was the trot line. It produced about half the catch per man day as did the pot and therefore was rapidly replaced as the preferred fishing gear (Cronin, 1950).
The Lewis crab pot design in the late 1930s set blue crab commerce on a new trajectory. In their 2025 crab season opening press release, Virginia Seafood wrote, “Based on the latest landing figures from NOAA and the VMRC Virginia commercial watermen and women landed 16,082,342 pounds of Blue Crab that had a total value of $28,967,957.20 and was the third highest dollar value species landed in 2022.” The NOAA fisheries data, shown below, makes the point about the magnitude of the Virginia blue crab business.
Regional regulatory and envionmental interests have long been interested in the health of the Chesapeake Bay and blue crabs specifically. Winter dredge surveys have been completed since 1998 when Maryland piloted the survey. (Source) The Maryland Department of Natural Resources explains the reason for the survey:
The winter dredge survey is the only bay-wide fishery-independent effort to estimate the number of blue crabs living in the Chesapeake Bay. The winter dredge survey produces information that is essential for the management of the species, such as an estimate of the number of crabs over-wintering in the bay and the number of young crabs entering the population each year. Also calculated is the estimated number of females that could spawn within the year, which is an important indicator of future spawning potential. Estimating the total number of crabs living in the bay allows us to calculate the percentage of the crab population that is removed by harvest each year.
CBF and Outdoors Maryland give us a bit of insight into the winter dredge in the two videos below. And the Chesapeake Bay Foundation summarized their video A Day on the Water with the Blue Crab Winter Dredge Survey this way:
For decades, the annual blue crab winter dredge survey, conducted by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources and the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS), has provided crucial information for assessing the health of the Chesapeake Bay’s blue crab population. In March 2023, we joined VIMS researchers as they surveyed the lower Chesapeake Bay at 18 different locations between New Point Comfort and Cape Charles, Virginia. They pulled the dredge along the bottom for 60 seconds at each location, then recorded important information about each crab caught. This is one of many trips by Virginia and Maryland researchers that takes place each winter around the Bay and its tidal rivers to paint a picture of the Bay’s blue crab population.
Finally, an essential watch: Chesapeake Crabs featuring Kate Livie, writer, educator, and public speaker on the Chesapeake Bay. Event organizer Chesapeake Forum introduced the vid with the following:
Kate explores the diverse story of the Bay's staple seafood, blue crabs. Crabs reveal the complex, deeply nuanced connection between the Bay’s environment and the Chesapeake people and how that relationship has transformed due to industry, adaptation, pollution and climate change. She also explores the foodways and history of the beautiful swimmer— a story of diversity, from enslaved cooks who created our Chesapeake cuisine flavored by the tastes of the diaspora, to modern-day packing houses powered by H2B migrant pickers from Mexico.