How will federal cuts impact Virginia? A new GA committee will determine what’s what. What do we do in the meantime? (Part II)

How will federal cuts impact Virginia? A new GA committee will determine what’s what. What do we do in the meantime? (Part I) set the stage for this post, Part II. Part III will follow soon.

A brief overview of federal actions

Some impacts of DOGE actions have already been felt. For example, VCU and UVA both obeyed Executive Order 14168 in advance by cancelling gender-affirming care to teens. UVA resumed care last week following a court order. As U.Va. board to meet over gender-affirming care dispute explains,

The matter has become a partisan issue ignited by President Donald Trump’s Jan. 28 executive order banning all gender-affirming medical treatment for patients under 19, even in Virginia, where the Virginia Human Rights Act in the state code explicitly protects people from discrimination related to their gender identity. Despite the state law, Youngkin and Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares, both Republicans, have voiced support for the executive order’s limitations on medical care, and Miyares issued a directive to UVA Health and VCU Health enforcing the order last month.

DOGE is also ordering mass firings across agencies, with FEMA and the Pentagon starting this week.

And then there are the cuts, some anticipated and some underway, to education, SNAP, Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), and USDA. Some of what is being written about these cuts and their impact:

• House Republicans representing large shares of Medicaid, SNAP beneficiaries face tough budget test: “While Democrats represent more districts with the largest portions of adults receiving federal assistance, the prevalence of constituents who are dependent on anti-poverty programs in GOP-held seats could test Republicans who are on the hunt for steep spending cuts and under pressure to implement Trump’s agenda. And it underscores why the issue has become such a sticking point in the budget talks.”
• “Rural school systems get a large portion of their funding from the state, and the biggest source of state funding is the income tax. The region in Virginia that generates the most income tax is Northern Virginia, accounting for about 40% of the state’s revenue. That means state-funded projects, from schools to roads to prisons, owe a large portion of their funding to the economic health of Northern Virginia.” (Source)
• Looming: Threat to food benefits
• Layoffs hit thousands of USDA employees across the country - The firings mostly targeted new hires, but farm loan officers, animal disease scientists and conservationists were also impacted.

Federal cuts’ impacts on tourism

RIFs, layoffs, mass firings, reductions in or cancellations in programs of all sorts can also adversely affect tourism. As the Facebook post about NPS and local national parks notes, “tourism is important to the Northern Neck.” And in response to those who incorrectly argued I'm a fill-in-the-blank, here are some facts:

According to Visitors to the NNK spend more in 2023 than in 2022 and 2021, “Visitor spending on the Northern Neck was $289 million in 2023, $194.8 million in direct spending and $94 million in indirect and induced spending.”

Looking forward, NNK Tourism is looking to outdoor activities, historic sites, and the designation as a National Heritage Area to continue to increase tourism and spending.

Both kinds of spending, direct and indirect, benefit residents and business owners on the Northern Neck. Good tourism seasons can make or break a small business. And, healthy tourism revenue can have a positive impact on the community more broadly.