The experts have started issuing their forecasts for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, June 1-November 20. WeatherTiger’s first take came out March 22. In the past week, Colorado State University's CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research Team and TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) have released theirs.
All predict an unusually active season. TSR, for example,
predicts that the North Atlantic hurricane season in 2024 will be hyper-active with activity about 70% above the 1991-2020 climate norm. This is the highest forecast issued by TSR at this lead time. This forecast has higher confidence than normal at this lead time. The forecast predicts 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes [and] an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 217
TSR’s report includes a comparison of TSR and CSU predictions. It is below. CSU’s more detailed prediction is the bottom image below.
TSR’s next forecast will be published May 30 and CSU’s June 11.