TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) predicts the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be “very active with activity about 30% above the 1991-2020 30-year norm and around 50% above the long-term 1950-2023 norm.” (source: email announcing forecast)
According to the forecast summary, page 1 of Extended Range Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2024 (PDF):
This forecast has high uncertainty due to uncertainty in how warm the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea sea surface temperatures will be in August-September 2024 and by how much this will influence the strength of the Caribbean trade winds.
The organization’s specific forecast is shown in the image below.
TSR’s forecast update for the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be made Monday April 8, 2024.
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