Colorado State University’s Tropical Weather & Climate Research Group
On July 6, Colorado State University’s Tropical Weather & Climate Research Group released their updated forecast for 2023 hurricane activity (July 6, 2023 2023 forecast (PDF)). The group is now anticipating above average activity. They write:
We have increased our forecast and now call for an above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2023, although uncertainty with this outlook is larger than normal. While we continue to anticipate a robust El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic now has record warm sea surface temperatures. . . The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above the long-period average.
The Tropical Weather & Climate Research Group has increased their predictions twice since the first of 2023 in April. The next CSU forecast will be released August 3.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)
Tropical Storm Risk has updated their 2023 hurricane season predictions, increasing the number of hurricanes and tropical storms anticipated as a result of “warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.” TSR’s July prediction includes eight hurricanes, up from six in December 2022, and 17 tropical storms, up from 13 in December 2022.
TSR will issue its final prediction for the season August 8.