It’s hurricane season and you’re reading headlines and predictions and are confused as all get out. Which organizations should you trust? Who's got the chops to get it right?
Which hurricane models should you trust in 2023? How the models did last year, what’s new this year – and why you should pay the most heed to the National Hurricane Center forecast. to your rescue. Article authors Jeff Masters and Bob Henson write:
It’s always been the case that a particular forecast model may outperform the official NHC forecast in some situations. However, the 2022 NHC Forecast Verification Report reiterates a longstanding truth: overall, it is very difficult for any one model to consistently beat the NHC forecasts for track and for intensity.