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More hurricane season predictions

NOAA’s 2023 hurricane season prediction

On May 25, NOAA issued its prediction for the 2023 hurricane season. Read NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season and watch the announcement, below. Specifically, Climate Prediction Center forecasters predict

a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

At the same time, NOAA announced new tools and/or upgrades for hurricane analysis and forecasting which will benefit Americans. These include:

* The National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook graphic, which shows tropical cyclone formation potential, has expanded the forecast range from five to seven days.

* Over the last 10 years, flooding from tropical storm rainfall was the single deadliest hazard. To give communities more time to prepare, the Weather Prediction Center is extending the Excessive Rainfall Outlook an additional two days, now providing forecasts up to five days in advance. The outlook shows general areas at risk for flash flooding due to excessive rainfall.

* The National Weather Service will unveil a new generation of forecast flood inundation mapping for portions of Texas and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in September 2023. These forecast maps will extend to the rest of the U.S. by 2026. Forecast flood inundation maps will show the extent of flooding at the street level.



CSU Tropical Meteorology Project

On June 1, the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project issued an updated hurricane season 2023 forecast; the project now calls for “a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2023.” Read the June 1 press release (PDF) and the June 1 prediction (PDF).

The next update will be published July 6.


WeatherTiger

WeatherTiger’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for May 2023 explains the challenges associated with predicting the 2023 hurricane season: El Niño and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Writes Dr. Ryan Truchelut,

These two atmospheric heavyweights have never been more diametrically opposed entering a hurricane season than in 2023, making for an uncertain seasonal outlook. Fortunately, we have a system: an eye of the Tiger, if you will. WeatherTiger’s seasonal models offer specific odds for overall tropical activity and U.S. landfall risks, and will continuously update those probabilities each day between now and October as punishing blows are exchanged.


Met Office (UKMET)

The Met Office, the national meteorological service for the UK which provides world-leading climate science, issued their 2023 hurricane season prediction in late May. North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2023 predicts 20 tropical storms (winds of at least 39 mph) compared to an average of 14, 11 hurricanes (winds of at least 74 mph) compared to an average of seven, and five major hurricanes (winds of at least 111 mph) compared to an average of three. Additional information about these predictions are shown in the images to the right and below.




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