Earlier this month, Colorado State University’s Tropical Weather & Climate Research Group released their forecast for 2023 hurricane activity (CSU April 13, 2023 predictions (PDF)). The group is anticipating “slightly below-average activity.”
This means that of the predicted 13 named storms, six will become hurricanes with two of those developing into major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are defined as Categories 3, 4, and 5.
The CSU team is estimating 2023 activity to be 80% of the 1991 to 2020 average season. At the same time, the probabililties for at least one major hurricane making landfall is a tick above average for the entire continental US coastline, 44% compared with 43% (1880–2020) and the east coast, 22% compared with 21% (1880–2020).
The next CSU forecast will be released June 1.
And now for the PSA: “As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”