The main takeaways of the University of Virginia’s COVID-19 model July 15 weekly update are:
- Case rates have remained relatively stable over the last few weeks. But test positivity, wastewater surveillance, and hospitalization trends all suggest growth across Virginia. This matches the trends seen in neighboring states. Hospitalizations continue to climb in Maryland, Washington DC, and West Virginia.
- Seventeen districts are in growth trajectories, with three of these districts surging. Fifty localities are now at “High” community levels. A further sixty are at “Medium” community levels. Residents in these counties should take appropriate preventive measures.
- The BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants have continued to make in-roads and are now dominant in Virginia.
- Models project a small rise in cases in the coming weeks. They also show a potential for future growth in the Fall. This will depend on seasonality and the introduction of potential future variants.
Each of the four NNK counties―Lancaster, Northumberland, Richmond, and Westmoreland―are rated as a Medium community level (see COVID-19 Community Level (July 14, 2022) for the county data in one place).
And as the Three Rivers Health District points out in their July 18 pandemic update on Facebook, “We continue to see COVID-19 outbreaks related to events and in vulnerable settings. . .” For this reason, the courthouse in Northumberland County is requiring facemasks to enter.
But there’s more to the story and the risk associated with COVID-19 than the UVA model suggests. The CDC, for example, measures social vulnerability and defines it this way:
Every community must prepare for and respond to hazardous events, whether a natural disaster like a tornado or disease outbreak, or a human-made event such as a harmful chemical spill. A number of factors, including poverty, lack of access to transportation, and crowded housing may weaken a community’s ability to prevent human suffering and financial loss in a disaster. These factors are known as social vulnerability.
Based on this definition, Lancaster and Northumberland Counties have a low risk, Westmoreland County medium, and Richmond County has medium-high risk. The things that go into the social vulnerability index in more detail, are:
- Socially Vulnerable Populations include those who have special needs, such as, but not limited to, people without vehicles, people with disabilities, older adults, and people with limited English proficiency.
- Census tracts are subdivisions of counties for which the Census collects statistical data. The CDC/ATSDR SVI ranks each tract on 15 social factors, including poverty, lack of vehicle access, and crowded housing, and groups them into four related themes. Each tract receives a separate ranking for each of the four themes, as well as an overall ranking.
- CDC/ATSDR SVI Themes & Social Factors: socioeconomic status (below poverty, unemployed, income, no high school diploma); household composition & disability (aged 65 or older, aged 17 or younger, older than age 5 with a disability, single-parent households); minority status & language (minority, speak English “less than well”); and housing type & transportation (multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle, group quarters)
Combined, the community level and social vulnerability should inform local policy decisions regarding protecting the health and well-being of residents and visitors in the framework of public health. Certainly, absent guidance from state officials, individuals and businesses can self-impose safety measures such as mask wearing and eating only outside at restaurants.