Yale Climate Connections says “. . . you should ignore [the many hurricane models] in favor of the National Hurricane Center forecast.”
That's right. YCC, in The most reliable hurricane models, based on their 2021 performance asserts, “it is very difficult for any one model to consistently beat the NHC forecasts for track and for intensity.” That's about all in this article that I understand (!). For the people with skills, the rest of the YCC article should be interesting, as will the sources of free model data provided toward the end.
About Yale Climate Connections:
nonpartisan, multimedia service providing daily broadcast radio programming and original web-based reporting, commentary, and analysis on the issue of climate change, one of the greatest challenges and stories confronting modern society.
Yale Climate Connections is an initiative of the Yale Center for Environmental Communication (YCEC), directed by Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz of the Yale School of the Environment, Yale University. (Source: About YCC)