ICYMI: Emergencies and disasters on the Northern Neck, the series summarized

Over the past three months, the blog has featured a series on hurricanes and other disasters. The nine-part series was inspired by Governor McAuliffe's announcement (PDF) of #KnowYourZoneVA, the state's new tiered evacuation zone system for coastal Virginia. The series covered numerous elements of emergencies and disasters, from the basics of the new evacuation plan to the history of extreme weather on the Northern Neck to flood risk to effective communications before, during, and after a major storm or other emergency.

Part 1, New series: Hurricanes, evacuation, data, and the Northern Neck

New series: Hurricanes, evacuation, data, and the Northern Neck describes the basics of #KnowYourZoneVA: The plan incorporates 23 localities and ranks them by harm risk from hurricanes and other storms and emergencies. The good news for the Northern Neck? Most of the four counties (Lancaster, Northumberland, Richmond, Westmoreland) are not zoned at all, meaning they are not in an evacuation zone. But as written in series opener, "But this doesn't mean hurricanes won't negatively impact the region."

As residents well know, the Northern Neck is no stranger to hurricanes. The National Weather Service Wakefield Office's history of hurricanes on the eastern seaboard (PDF) wrote this:

2006 September 1 ERNESTO... At some locations on the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck and Eastern Shore, the tidal flooding and damage rivaled that from Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Power outages were widespread across Virginia's Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula.

2011 August 27 Irene... Although Irene passed east of the Mid Atlantic Coast, the most substantial wind damage occurred in a swath from Caroline and Westmoreland counties... Winds estimated between 70 and 80 mph downed many trees, blocked roads and caused widespread power outages.

Part 2, Virginia's got a new hurricane/other disaster evacuation plan

Before the adoption of #KnowYourZoneVA, the state and 23 localities implemented the state's evacuation plan with varying degrees of fidelity. The new plan is an effort to better coordinate all aspects of emergency/disaster response, from communicating before the emergency, to evacuation/shelter-in-place orders, to management during and after the emergency.

As written in Virginia's got a new hurricane/other disaster evacuation plan, "The new evacuation zones were developed in coordination with local emergency managers by Atkins, a global engineering firm with deep experience designing hurricane evacuation plans for major metropolitan areas." (Governor McAuliffe's June 1 announcement (PDF)). Furthermore, "The new system uses the colors used by the National Hurricane Center. Using the NOAA color scheme is one way Virginia is simplifying the messages residents get about hurricanes."

Read the post to learn what your risk is.

Part 3, Hurricanes, tornadoes, and other extreme weather on the Northern Neck

Hurricanes, tornadoes, and other extreme weather on the Northern Neck highlights the major storms impacting the Northern Neck. Social media (videos, infographic) and text are interwoven to retell major storm — EF-1 tornado in Irvington and Kilmarnock, April 6, 2017; Post Tropical Cyclone Sandy, October 2012; and Hurricane Isabel, September 2003, to name a few — stories.

Part 4, #KnowYourZoneVA on the Northern Neck

The good news:

Of land and water zoned in the new #KnowYourZoneVA schema, very little of the Northern Neck is in the highest risk zone (A, blue). More land is in Zone B (green). The majority of Northern Neck land and water is not zoned at all. (#KnowYourZoneVA on the Northern Neck)

Part 5, Flooding risk on the Northern Neck

Flooding on the Northern Neck is inevitable given the 1,100 miles of shoreline and proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. Here, flooding results from rain storms, Nor'easters, tropical storms, and hurricanes. (Flooding risk on the Northern Neck)

Flooding between January 1, 1950 to April 30, 2017 has cost the Northern Neck at least $24.3 million with Northumberland County taking the biggest hit, just over $20 million.

Flooding risk is assessed by several federal and state government agencies, each for a different purpose. The best well known among them is FEMA for the National Flood Insurance Program. This post looks into the purposes of the assessments and links to them to enable readers to learn more.

Part 6, Flood insurance on the Northern Neck

Flood insurance on the Northern Neck aggregates flood insurance policy data in the single file, Flood Insurance Policies in Place on the Northern Neck as of 3/31/17 to make comparison between the four counties easier. It shows there were 1,940 flood insurance policies in force with a value of $558 million on the Northern Neck — Lancaster, Northumberland, Richmond, and Westmoreland counties — as of March 31, 2017. The premiums for these policies amounts to $1.6 million.

Northumberland County residents hold 737 policies; Lancaster County, 600; Westmoreland County, 520; and Richmond County, 82.

Part 7, Hurricane, tropical storm, and Nor'easter damage on the Northern Neck

Hurricane, tropical storm, and Nor'easter damage on the Northern Neck combines video and data to present a compelling history of damaging storms hitting the Northern Neck.


NOAA reported 22 events between January 1, 1950 and April 30, 2017 in Westmoreland, Richmond, Northumberland, and Lancaster counties. The events

impacted the four counties on nine days, caused property damage on six days and crop damage on three days, and were made up of three types of events: high wind, hurricanes/typhoons, and tropical storms. Thankfully, no deaths or injuries resulted from any of the events.

Combined, the 16 of the 22 events caused an estimated $17,225,000 in property damage and $3,412,000 in crop damage.

Part 8, Tornadoes on the #NNK

As some Northern Neck residents know, tornadoes do not just happen in the midwest. There were 28 events between January 1, 1950 and April 30, 2017 on the Northern Neck and they did millions of dollars in damage. Thankfully, there were no deaths, but 11 people were injured.

Tornadoes on the #NNK reports data from several sources and shows the real-life impact via video.

Part 9, Proactive, effective information-sharing in emergencies and disasters

Let's face it: Nature abhors a vacuum. Professor Nicholas DiFonzo explains:

Well, I think that in hurricanes or cataclysms or catastrophes or earthquakes like this, there's always a great deal of rumors in the aftermath. There's a great deal of anxiety; there's a great deal of uncertainty, communication. Networks have broken down, people have a need to know information, and it's not there. The formal sources of information, especially in the Katrina situation, as you well know, telephone lines are out, cell phone lines were out, people were isolated. And so these rumors sort of percolated about and became much more exaggerated than they normally would in, say, other situations, which tend to produce extremely accurate rumors. But natural disaster rumors tend to be extremely inaccurate. (Anatomy of a Rumor transcript)

But rumors can be prevented or mitigated. Proactive, effective information-sharing in emergencies and disasters looks to experts who explain how.