Should a newly published sea level rise scenario come to pass, hundreds of American landmarks, neighborhoods, towns and cities would be submerged this century, at least in the absence of engineering massive, costly and unprecedented defenses and relocating major infrastructure. Ocean waters would cover land currently home to more than 12 million Americans and $2 trillion in property. (Climate Central (2017). Extreme Sea Level Rise and the Stakes for America. A Climate Central research report.)
While Climate Central does not believe the extreme sea level rise will come to pass, the fact remains that climate change will have a number of important negative effects on coastal areas. Effects include flooding, infrastructure degradation or ruin, transportation interruption, economic challenges, property loss most important of which is home loss, and natural habitat destruction and possible collapse.
What will happen in Virginia?
Virginia ranks fourth of the states "most affected state by total population." Five Virginia cities are on the list of the 30 cities with the most people on affected land, based on the 2010 US Census and the extreme sea level projection map:
- Virginia Beach, ranked 4th (222,000)
- Norfolk, ranked 5th (201,000, and 246,139 as of 2013)
- Hampton, ranked 17th (91,000)
- Chesapeake, ranked 19th (88,000)
- Portsmouth, ranked 26th (66,000)
Absent policy and practice changes, climate change has the potential to devastate these cities.
100 Resilient Cities categorizes harm as "acute shocks" and "chronic stresses." Shocks are "sudden, sharp events that threaten a city. Examples include: earthquakes, floods, disease outbreaks, terrorist attacks." Stresses "weaken the fabric of a city on a daily or cyclical basis. Examples include: high unemployment, overtaxed or inefficient public transportation system, endemic violence, chronic food and water shortages."
Sea level rise and the Northern Neck
Sea level rise impacts the four counties differently as shown in the slideshow Surging Seas Extreme Scenario 2100 on the Northern Neck, below.
The Northern Neck faces many of the same challenges Norfolk and other cities, and in fact towns small and large, do. There may be varied economic-related shocks and stresses, but the negative effects are harmful just the same to people and the region overall.
Since the Northern Neck is rural, the population effects are smaller than in cities. Climate Central reports that in Heathsville, there are two people who live on land at risk. This accounts for 1% of the population on land at risk. In Kilmarnock, there are four people who live on land at risk. This accounts for 0% of the population on land at risk. (U.S. City and Town Populations on Land Below Extreme Sea Level Scenario, 2100)
Drivers of the economy of the Northern Neck are farming, fishing, and tourism. According to the region's Wikepedia page:
Tourism is a significant source of economic activity in the Northern Neck region. Visitors are attracted to the natural resources, and history and heritage of the peninsula. Natural attractions include national parks, state parks, and agri-tourism, while a number of historic sites related to the nation's founders are open to the public. Colonial Beach, Westmoreland State Park, Rappahannock River National Wildlife Refuge, and many other locations provide water access for fishing, boating, and yachting. The region has twenty-seven marinas.
There are nine wineries in the region that may be found on the Chesapeake Bay Wine Trail.
Other popular Northern Neck attractions include Stratford Hall, the birthplace of Robert E. Lee and an example of a Virginia plantation, George Washington Birthplace National Monument, the Westmoreland Berry Farm, and the Westmoreland State Park with Horsehead Cliffs.
All these drivers are climate sensitive. Flooding, and the permanent loss of land to the sea will naturally alter what can be done with particular pieces of land and when.
So what role does policy play? A lot.
The Northumberland County 2016 comp plan, for example, contemplates shoreline condition including erosion, wetlands and natural habitat areas, historic and archeological resources, potable water, and public facilities and resources. Many municipality adaptation plans consider such topics and make decisions about necessary changes.
Does Northumberland County need to develop an adaptation plan that considers planning through the lens of climate change? Residents and government have yet to decide. But if it does, the 2008 Governor's Commission on Climate Change - Final Report: A Climate Change Action Plan (PDF) would be a good resource.
What could the Northern Neck do? Counties could restrict new home construction in the Surging Seas Extreme Scenario 2100 areas. This decision would have negative implications for the rest of the 21st century and likely into the 22nd. Counties could also take an aggressive stance protecting the coastline, wetlands, and natural habitat areas. The U.S. Global Change Research Program's National Climate Assessment and the Georgetown Climate Center provide a wealth of resources to help jurisdictions think through adaptation planning.